The Buckeye State is going to provide the purest test of the “coattails” of the eventual Democratic candidate for President. We elected our new Governor in 2006 and don’t have a U.S. Senate race until 2010. So this time, the ballot goes from President to U.S. House seats.
And, again, it’s all about Ohio.
Repeat after me kids: “No Republican can get to the White House unless they win Ohio.” I think that putting the Sick Days Initiative on the ballot is a master stroke. The polling numbers for this proposal are absolutely Off. The. Hook. Just as the disgusting Hate Amendment (anti-gay marriage) brought in enough evangelicals to reelect the Shrub in 2004, the Minimum Wage initiative helped a blue tide to sweep Ohio in 2006.
Our current U.S. House delegation is 11 GOP to 7 Democrats (gotta loves them Gerrymandering!) But we have the very real chance to flip three or maybe even FOUR seats. I don’t know if any other state right now with the meaningful chance to make such a HUGE reversal in their Congresscritters.
I thoroughly expect victories from:
OH-01 (Steve Dreihaus)
OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy
OH-16 State Senator and USAF Major John Boccieri
and MAYBE
OH-14 Judge (and pediatrics emergency room nurse) Bill O’Neill
Other seats will be entertaining as well. For example, who doesn’t look forward to what fresh hell Mean Jean Schmidt (OH-02) can bring down on herself and her GOP collaborators?
Here’s the big question:
What other state has a realistic chance to flip control of their state’s U.S. House delegation and to do so by such a large percentage of the seats in the state?
My sense is that we have seen little of the so called “Bradley effect” or “Wilder Effect” in the primaries, but I suspect that it will be much, much worse in the run up to the general election as the right wing smear machine pounds away at their target demographics, including lower income, lower education, white, male “NASCAR dads” (and moms.)
As I keep repeating, Democratic candidates MUST be really disciplined and stick to the “kitchen table” issues come heck or high water. Pocketbook truth trumps delusional scare tactics. They may have fear and bigotry on their side but we have reality.
Once again, the Northeast and Great Lakes states are the focus. Last cycle Democrats picked up four seats in PA (flipping that delegation), three seats and a flip in IN, three seats in NY, two and a flip in IA, CT, and NH, two in FL, two and a tie in AZ. This time around at least five states offer the possibility of a three seat gain but only two offer the possibility of a flip:
Michigan (currently 9-6 in favor of the Republicans has real challenges im MI-7 (where freshman wingnut Tim Walberg is challenged by Mark Schauer) and MI-9 where Gary Peters is pitted against GOP incumbent Joe Knollenberg. MI-9 is probably the best shot for another seat.
Florida (currently 16-9) would need a four seat pickup for a delegation flip. FL-8 (Ric Keller), FL-10 (if Bill Young retires) and the trio of South Florida seats (21,24, and 25) could do the job. This is probably the most similar to Ohio as OH-2 or OH-16 could flip as well.
Three seat pickups are realistic possibilities in New York (29,25,26, and possibly 13 could be in play), New Jersey (3,5, and 7 and possibly NJ-2), and Illinois (10,11,14 with longshots in 18 and 6). Some people claim VA could produce a three seat pickup and that would be a change in control.
Oh-16 is going to flip. Kirk Schuring was just barely able to get the GOP nomination over a flaming neocon knuckledragging Club for (malignant) Growths type. John Boccieri has been out-raising the entire GOP field consistently, for quarter after quarter. He’s the right guy in the right district with the right message for 2008. Now that Schuring has (barely) secured the nomination, his fund raising will improve, but it will be far too little, too late.
OH-02 is a different situation. This District is so ridiculously gerrymandered for the GOP that we shouldn’t even be having this discussion…
Ah, but this is Mean Jean Schmidt that we’re talkin’ about!
There has been quite a bit of discussion here about repeat candidates. Historically, right in our own state, we have the case of Ted Strickland who ran and lost Congressional races repeatedly but then won a House seat and then the governorship. I am afraid that our experience here in OH-05 might be more typical –but I certainly hope that I’m wrong. As much as I want to see Dr. Wulsin triumph (and I am SO glad she won the primary) from a “horse race” standpoint, it will be a (MUCH LOVED) upset if she wins in November.
Ohio voters are sort of weird. Even if general public polling shows that people HATE a sitting GOP public official, they will still reelect them. There is always a gap between what the overall public thinks vs. what VOTERS actually do, and in our state when it comes to sitting GOP House reps, it takes sexual or big time money scandal to get them out.
Consider for example, OH-04 where Dem challenger Ben Konop was able to break the 40% mark (by half a point) against “Country Club” Oxley in 2004. (And was the only challenger from either Party to get better than 40% that year.) Just the fact that Ben came that “close” was enough to get Oxley to retire.
But his replacement? MUCH farther to the right than Oxley. Oh, well…
In 2012, everything changes. But if we can flip three or four seats this year? WOW, and I think that we will.